NW Service Area
NE Service Area
SW Service Area
SE Service Area

Southwest of Storm Lake

10-07-2021
Past Weeks Rainfall Rain last week put welcome moisture back in the beans.
Soil Moisture 28% of topsoil in western Iowa is short, another 10% is very short. 44% of subsoil is short, 21% is very short.
Temperature Warm for this time of year, highs in mid-70's to 80's. Night-time in the 40's.
Crop Progress Bean harvest is well underway, corn harvest has a good start.

Corn

Crop Stage Harvest time depending on grain moisture.
Yield Potential Most fields are better than expected.

Corn Market

Current Prices 5.08
Fall Prices – October 2022 4.81
Past Weeks Trend Mostly steady.

Soybeans

Crop Stage Harvest time.
Yield Potential Most fields are better than expected.

Soybean Market

Current Prices 12.05
Fall Prices – October 2022 11.82
Past Weeks Trend Slight downtrend
Comments:
Generally speaking, this is one of the most surprising crops I've ever seen. We could see the beans had podded well and the rains beginning around August 20th into early September were great to finish out the potential that was there, but even at that, many bean fields are 10-15 bushels per acre better than anticipated. This is not just our observation but that of the majority of farmers we've talked to.

Corn is the same way, many fields are much better than anticipated, although it is still very early in the corn harvest. I believe we'll see more volatility in corn yields than bean yields, based upon vegetative stress that's been observed since mid-summer. However, many fields developed more kernels than we've seen and that's coming out the end of the auger with very good yields.

This has been a "just in time" year for rainfall. All summer, farm managers west of the Mississippi River reported that the crops were "on the edge", and they were. We recall in 2012 when each 1/10th of an inch made a difference. Same this year, but I also think we gained more subsoil moisture in March than we'd given credit for.

Grain prices off the combine are quite good at roughly $5 corn and $12 beans. High yields x good prices = a very good year. We're hearing that many (most?) farmers plan to maximize bushels in storage, thinking prices will repeat this past year's historic price rally. Maybe, but it is rare that prices would repeat the previous year. In fact, it is more common that prices provide little (if any) return to storage after a high-price year like the 2020-21 year.

Crop inputs, especially fertilizer are going up. Fertilizer tracks corn revenue almost step-for-step. We anticipate fertilizer bills around $200 per acre instead of the low $100's which we've had for several years.

You've all heard about land prices in 2021. All areas of land values are higher, but the land market is always site-specific. Parts of Northwest Iowa will bring $15,000 to $18,000 per acre, but that does not apply everywhere. Similar ground in other areas may be well below that. More medium-quality land, especially if drainage is average, will still sell for under $10,000/acre.

If you're considering a sale, discuss it with someone who really understands the nuances of the market. It can change by the mile, and it's definitely not all based on the CSR, as some would like to think.

Dennis Reyman

Dennis Reyman
Email Author

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