Southwest Iowa Crop Conditions

Southwest Iowa Crop Conditions

Southwest of Storm Lake

Counties of: Woodbury, Ida, Sac, Monona, Crawford, Harrison, Shelby

Past Weeks Rainfall: 2-5 inches
Soil Moisture: Adequate to Surplus
Temperature: 6 degrees below normal
Crop Progress: 7 to 10 days behind

Corn

Crop Stage: Full Maturity
Yield Potential: Average

Soybean

Crop Stage: Full Maturity with harvest in full swing
Yield Potential: Average

Corn Market

Current Prices: $2.85/bu/bu
Fall Prices: $3.05/bu/bu
Past Weeks Trend: Slightly Higher

Soybean Market

Current Prices: $8.82/bu/bu
Fall Prices: $8.88/bu/bu
Past Weeks Trend: Slightly Higher

Comments:

Dennis Reyman AFM, ARA

Harvest has begun but barely. Estimate no more than 10% of the beans harvested by October 7, and virtually no
corn. Wet ground is a problem from continued rainfall from about August 20 into October. Some alfalfa laid on the
ground for 3 weeks between cutting and baling during that time. Most bean fields are finally getting close to harvest
but expect bean harvest to last several weeks or longer if the weather mimics 2009, which seems to be a corollary
year. Yields are very good if excessive moisture was not a problem. There will be many 60 bu/acre fields but also
some in the teens, particularly on the Missouri River bottom where rainfall approached 40-50” in some areas.

Corn moisture is mostly ranging from 20% to 30% with most in the upper half of that range. Stalk integrity is a
problem in many fields. Leaf diseases from the very wet climate this year has taken some yield off the top, as has
loss of nitrogen from excessive rainfall. Many fields will probably run 180-210. Some fields will be better but the
very high yields expected two months ago will be few.

Grain prices have sunk to the lowest levels since 2007 due to the expectation of a record harvest this year. 2013
was also a record crop, so supply is expected to out-strip demand by a wider margin than we’ve seen since the
“ethanol era” began in late 2006. Exports will be key to reducing supply. If exports can meet the levels of 2007-
2008, corn prices will rebound. With record-high cattle and hog prices, slaughter weights are heavier. Cheaper corn
means a higher percentage in the ration. That also helps reduce corn supply. Southern US corn yields are
outstanding and those yields are pouring in. Northern yields will likely be less so, where little harvest has occurred.
It seems likely corn prices will put in a harvest low, then work higher as is the seasonal trend. Bean price recovery
is highly dependent on the South American crop development this winter. A bright spot there is that global supply is
very tight right now. Crop revenue insurance will likely pay out well on many farms.

The farm program sign-up period has just been announced, which is November 17 to March 31. Landowners have
the choice whether to update base acres and update yields (PLC program only). 2014 tenants have the choice
whether to select ARC or PLC for the entire 2014-2018 period.

Land prices are showing some retracement. How much depends on quality and location.

Crop Update Achives

Please click on the links on the right to view the past pdf’s of our Southwest Crop Conditions reports.

Market Conditions

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