Crop Conditions

Crops are progressing towards harvest. Corn planted in late April is 2-3 weeks from full maturity, while corn planted the 2nd half of May is just beginning to dent and will need a full month or more to reach maturity. Soybeans are in the pod filling stage, with some of the latest planted fields still adding a few pods. Most of the soybeans will also need 2 to 3 weeks to reach maturity, although some of the earliest planted beans are beginning to turn color.

August weather has been very favorable for crop development, with moderate temperatures and enough rain to maintain yield potential. A general 1 to 1 1/2 inch rain throughout the area last night will provide enough moisture to finish out the year.

Yield prospects will be good in the southern portion of the area that missed the damaging late June rains. The northern part of the area will have limited yield prospects from loss of stand and nitrogen from too much moisture. In general, the soybeans look better than the corn in these areas.

Markets
The grain markets bottomed recently, and recovered a bit this week. The majority of the corn belt is looking at very good crops this year. Recent private and USDA estimates are projecting corn yields near 183 bu/acre and soybeans near 54 bu/acre, both of which will be records if achieved. Carry over supplies will be well above recent levels at over 2 billion bushels on corn and 600 million bushels on soybeans. We would like to think all the bad news of big crops is priced in, but history shows that September is the worst month for grain prices, so we may have  a little lower to go. Ethanol usage of corn has been good, and new crop exports of both crops have started to pick up recently as low prices spur some sales – a small consolation.