As a kid, I heard Howard Cosell use the word “resilient” on Monday Night Football. In his overly dramatic tone, the word had quite a ring to it. Now, I can just hear Howard shouting, “This land market is RESILIENT!”
Dandy Don Meredith might have drawn out a comment like “Now hold on there a minute Howard”. That seems to be about where we’re at in the land market these days.
Despite all the negative factors we hear every time we turn on the ag news, the land market keeps chugging along at a fairly steady, perhaps even resilient pace. However, the negative factors are more than enough to add, “Now hold on there a minute Howard”.
Overall Trend
Our sales database shows an average volume of land transactions around the area in late summer and early fall. Before we just look at the final averages, we have to consider which areas of our trade territory are represented in this dataset.
We find that the higher valued areas (such as Sioux County and surrounding areas) have a low representation in sales volume while other counties which historically generate lower values are more heavily represented this time around. That can skew the averages lower as compared to prior periods.
With that being said, our overall averages do find a bit of a softer market out there. However, when Travis and I prepare appraisal reports, which include 5-6 comparable sales per appraisal that are analyzed in detail, our need to apply an adjustment for a change in time value is little to none.
Our process always involves selecting sales which are most comparable in terms of distance, time, physical features, and are arms-length transactions. Some neighborhoods have little sales activity, which means we may be including a few sales from as much as twelve months ago. With enough repetition, trends become apparent.
We do occasionally find a need to make a small downward time adjustment. The vast majority of the time, the market is showing itself as steady. We believe this is supportive of results shown in recent land value surveys.
Surveys
Realtor’s Land Institute
Most recent was the semi-annual Realtor’s Land Institute survey of brokers’ opinions. As of September 1, 2025, that survey found slightly lower results as compared to March 1, 2025. The Northwest crop reporting district was placed at -0.6% while central Iowa was placed at -2.8%. Northcentral and west-central districts were -1.7% and -1.6% respectively. The state average was -1.2%. No districts were higher.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Another survey is the quarterly survey of bankers’ opinions conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. As of July 1, 2025, the quarterly change in Iowa farmland was -1%. Their entire region, which includes all or part of five states, was up 1%.
Kansas City Federal Reserve
The Kansas City Federal Reserve showed -1.5% from a year ago for non-irrigated cropland in their region which includes Nebraska.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve
The Minneapolis Fed (which includes South Dakota) showed -0.1% for the 2nd quarter.
Farm Credit Services of America (Omaha)
And finally, Farm Credit Services of America (Omaha) conducts appraisals of benchmark farms every six months. As of July 1st, their findings show 21 farms in Iowa to be down 0.1% in the past six months, Nebraska to be down 0.9%, while South Dakota was up 3.5% on cropland and not surprisingly, pasture up 14.2% in the first half of the year. Cow-calf operators are having their day in the sun with ongoing record beef prices.
The tables below show one or two sales of “good” farmland for most counties in the region. Stalcup-brokered sales are highlighted in green.
Selected Sales of Good Farmland - Iowa
| Date | Acres | % Tillable | County | $ / Acre | PI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | 149.29 | 100% | Osceola | $14,700 | 81.7 |
| October | 132.74 | 97% | Osceola | $9,800 | 97.0 |
| October | 80.13 | 96% | Sioux | $26,500 | 94.5 |
| October | 120.00 | 99% | Lyon | $18,200 | 95.1 |
| October | 52.80 | 100% | Crawford | $14,600 | 91.0 |
| October | 157.00 | 80% | Monona | $5,825 | 54.0 |
| September | 20.62 | 94% | Calhoun | $15,600 | 86.5 |
| September | 72.63 | 94% | Sac | $15,000 | 87.5 |
| September | 49.76 | 94% | Greene | $15,500 | 87.7 |
| September | 77.45 | 94% | Audubon | $15,100 | 74.5 |
| September | 160.00 | 98% | Cherokee | $17,000 | 85.6 |
| September | 69.00 | 100% | Calhoun | $10,400 | 85.0 |
| September | 119.00 | 95% | Hancock | $10,500 | 64.2 |
| September | 160.00 | 94% | Plymouth | $18,000 | 87.1 |
| September | 80.00 | 99% | Emmet | $12,100 | 83.6 |
| September | 71.00 | 96% | Osceola | $18,400 | 96.7 |
| September | 120.00 | 93% | Emmet | $12,000 | 81.0 |
| August | 46.45 | 99% | O'Brien | $13,700 | 78.8 |
| August | 77.00 | 99% | Buena Vista | $15,900 | 97.1 |
| August | 151.27 | 100% | Kossuth | $12,700 | 82.2 |
| August | 72.10 | 97% | Palo Alto | $12,600 | 86.6 |
| August | 143.76 | 99% | Sac | $15,200 | 85.7 |
| August | 113.90 | 94% | Dickinson | $13,200 | 88.1 |
| August | 160.00 | 97% | Palo Alto | $15,600 | 86.6 |
| August | 131.66 | 91% | Sac | $15,700 | 95.9 |
| August | 117.34 | 97% | O'Brien | $15,500 | 92.6 |
| August | 199.09 | 73% | Monona | $6,675 | 42.9 |
| July | 120.37 | 98% | Osceola | $16,100 | 96.6 |
| July | 226.00 | 99% | Hardin | $12,900 | 83.8 |
| July | 153.75 | 96% | Greene | $14,400 | 87.2 |
| July | 151.47 | 95% | O'Brien | $14,000 | 93.1 |
Selected Sales of Good Farmland - South Dakota
| Date | Acres | % Tillable | County | $ / Acre | PI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | 156.24 | 95% | McCook | $10,000 | 71.80 |
| October | 300.46 | 75% | Moody | $13,500 | 78.00 |
| September | 55.45 | 62% | Brookings | $7,900 | 42.90 |
| September | 55.45 | 62% | Brookings | $7,900 | 52.30 |
| September | 114.52 | 94% | Minnehaha | $11,500 | 80.00 |
Final Thoughts
Basically, I think we can agree that it’s a pretty steady market. But as Danderoo so wisely warned, hold on there a minute! He also liked to talk about o’ Mo. That’s momentum, and who has it. We think the land market maintains positive momentum for now.
Crop yields are very good, although many fields are not as good as once hoped and a few are a downright disappointment. Crop prices are low but…it seems there is enough negative news they should be lower but aren’t.
Can they recover enough to make this a relatively good year in the end? Perhaps. What if Trump tweets a deal with China?
Production costs remain too high, particularly fertilizer. Working capital has been eroded. Interest rates are higher than we’re used to but historically are about average. And whether we agree or not, another ad-hoc price support payment may be on the way from Uncle Sam. So, we see positive and negative forces at play in the market, but nothing quite bad enough for Keith Jackson to yell, “Whoaaa Nelly!!”.
Please consult one of our real estate professionals if you have specific questions about values and check the results of Stalcup auctions.
