Crop yields were generally good, very good, or record yields for both crops. There were some corn yield disasters in fields where hybrids which were very susceptible to Southern Rust were not treated with fungicide, resulting in very poor yields, but that was on a field-by-field basis. Fungicide was extremely important, too. Mostly very good with dry harvest moisture.
Monday’s USDA report (Jan 12th) was the “final” production report for the 2025 crop year. These reports (known as World Agricultural Supply/Demand Estimates or WASDE) are issued each month but the January report finalizes each year’s production estimates. However, we look to the upcoming Quarterly Stocks report (next one is March 31st) for ongoing adjustments, so January’s numbers can be maneuvered in those reports.
Monday’s report was the bomb…. and not in a good way! While the market had been starting to lean slightly bullish and prices had worked very slowly higher, they tanked on Monday at 11:00. Corn production had been estimated at a record 186.0 bushels per acre. The trading industry expect that to be trimmed down by 22 bushels per acre. Instead, USDA raised it to 186.5 bushels per acre and FOUND another 1.3 MILLION harvested acres! This results in a 17 million bushel crop with 2.227 billion bushels of carry-over projected for next August 31st. That means lower corn prices, except in USDA’s world, they raised the expected average price from $4.00 to $4.10. We can only hope they’re right on that one and they may be, in the end.
Soybeans similarly saw a rise in ending stocks from 290 million to 350 million. That is not necessarily burdensome IF South America doesn’t flood the world market with soybeans. China has agreed to purchase 12 million bushels of US soybeans and traders think they’ve committed to 10 to 10.5 million so far. USDA’s numbers register less than that but there are many “unknown destinations” on the books as well, which eventually become know. USDA lowered their average price estimate from $10.50 per bushel to $10.20 with this report. Quite honestly, $10.50 seemed high and would require a good period of higher prices to offset the average compiled so far since September 1st.
The land market has been low volume lately but with good results on what is selling.
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