Crop Conditions

Summer has certainly arrived across the Midwest, with this week’s combination of high temperatures and humidity. Despite the recent heat, crops across western Iowa and neighboring areas of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Minnesota continue to show strong yield potential, with crop development right on schedule.

Rainfall over the past several days has been highly variable. Some areas across the northern tier of Iowa counties received more than four inches of rain, while locations south of Highway 20 saw less than one-tenth of an inch. As a result, the biggest concern currently is increasing crop stress, especially in the driest areas. The 30-day accumulated precipitation map shows a large portion of western Iowa has received 50% or less of its normal June rainfall. Average June precipitation in western Iowa is around four inches. The forecast has some chances of rainfall over the next week, but beyond that the outlook shows below-average precipitation through the second week of July and continued above-average temperatures.

Corn is approaching the critical pollination (tasseling) stage over the next two weeks. This is the most important period of the growing season for determining yield potential and the time when corn is most vulnerable to heat, drought, wind, and hail. Following pollination, moderate temperatures and especially cooler nighttime temperatures help maximize the grain-fill period. Overall, the time from now through the end of July will have the biggest influence on this year’s corn yields. Disease pressure remains low across most fields, although last season reminded us how quickly foliar diseases can develop under favorable conditions.

Soybeans continue to improve daily, although some fields remain slightly behind normal in growth. Early- and mid-maturity varieties are beginning to flower, marking the start of reproductive development. Weed control has generally been good across the region, and fields are in good condition heading into July. Unlike corn, the most critical period for determining soybean yields occurs during August, when pod set and seed fill take place.

Today’s USDA June 30 Acreage and Grain Stocks reports showed planted acreage remained very close to spring planting intentions, confirming another large U.S. corn crop. However, both corn and soybean grain stocks came in slightly below the average trade estimates, providing some supportive news for the market. Corn and soybean futures responded with a bullish reaction immediately following the report. It will be interesting to see whether the market can build on that momentum.