Crop Conditions

Harvest is progressing normally. Beans are practically all done, except for a field here and there. Corn moisture is for the most part pretty dry which makes for a faster harvest pace. Yields are extremely variable, as everyone expected. Yields I have seen to the southwest of Storm Lake are decent nearby but decline as you travel southwesterly where drier conditions have persisted. As we have seen in other dry years, a small rain at the right time can make a big difference in the end. Too many areas suffered with no rainfall the last 30 days of the growing season, which was coupled with a stretch of extreme heat. Longer-season hybrids took this harder since they were farther from maturity at that time. We are seeing corn yields from below 100 bushels per acre to the mid-200’s. Beans from the 30’s to the 70’s. Many bean fields were surprisingly good, others surprisingly bad due to unfilled pods and soybeans the size of bb’s. Most of this area remains in moderate to severe drought.

Corn price has slid sideways since mid-September. Only a couple of days have varied more than 10 cents from the 30-day average. Ending stocks on corn is estimated to be 2.1 billion bushels. If that can shrink below 2B, the market will likely respond higher. Bean stocks are projected to be tight at 220 million bushels. South American crop prospects are beginning to enter the daily market conversation, as their planting season is underway.

A map of their soybean growing areas shows a north-south area stretching about 2,500 miles. That is the equivalent of Mexico City to Edmonton AB. Obviously, their season stretches out a while! South America’s widest width is similar to the US but total length is 4,500 miles. That is the same as from the Panama Canal to the Northwest Passage!