Crop Conditions

Heat this week has been hard on all crops, especially those that were already showing stress. This region was fortunate to get nice rains about two weeks ago in mid-August, but it has been dry since then. Total August rainfall ranged from about 1 inch up to 5 inches, so there is a wide range of soil moisture conditions across the area. Our entire region would still benefit from more rain as soon as possible. We have chances for some light rain over the next day or two, but the extended forecast remains warm and dry.

Corn is reaching the end of the dough stage and moving into the early dent stage. The kernels will begin drying from the top of the cob down. The number of kernels per ear is set, but kernel weight is still being determined in later-planted or full-season corn. Heat stress at this stage can cause corn to mature too quickly, which can reduce kernel weight. That is probably happening to some extent this week.
Yield estimates based on kernel counts are all over the board. The amount of “tip back” varies considerably depending on the drought stress in July. The first silage is starting to be cut this week, so we should begin hearing more yield estimates soon. I still think we have a reasonably good, average-sized corn crop across the region. I expect farms with heavier soils and those that received more timely rain will have a big advantage. The harvest timeline will probably be ahead of schedule this fall.

Soybeans generally look good across the region. Mid-August rainfall was great for the beans, but more rain during the second half of August was needed. Pods at the tops of the plants are still developing, so more rain over the next couple of weeks would still help to some extent. Estimating soybean yields at this point is difficult, but for now, the crop appears to be about average.

The grain markets have been on an impressive rally, which is somewhat unusual for this time of year. Several factors have come together including lower than expected national yield estimates like the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, “fund money” has been flowing into commodities lately, major escalations in the Black Sea region has stopped grain exports, the continued war in Iran, and El Niño/Super El Niño concerns adding weather risk to the upcoming South American growing season.

That is a lot of factors to keep track of, and any one of them could change quickly!